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Shark Pit — THE PIT
THE PIT
Shark Pit
Complete
The FounderThe VCThe Hype BeastThe Pessimist
The Founder
# 🚀 The Pitch
Thank you for having me—this is *exactly* the moment we've been building toward. **We're not just solving a problem, we're unlocking a $47B TAM that nobody's even talking about yet.** Our platform leverages AI-native architecture with blockchain-adjacent principles to create a frictionless, omnichannel experience that's literally 10x faster than legacy solutions.
We're pre-revenue, sure, but we're *post-product*—our beta cohort is seeing 340% month-over-month growth, and we've already got inbound interest from three Fortune 500s. The market is ready. **We're not disrupting an industry; we're creating an entirely new category.**
What questions can I answer about the vision?
*leans back, takes a sip of coffee*
Alright, let's unpack this. You've got a lot of adjectives here—AI-native, frictionless, omnichannel—but I'm going to need actual numbers, not vision.
**Here's what I need to see:**
1. **That $47B TAM claim** — where did it come from? Top-down market sizing or bottom-up from actual customer research? And more importantly: what's your *serviceable* TAM in year one?
2. **"340% MoM growth"** — on what base? Ten users? A hundred? What's the absolute number of paying customers, and what's your churn? Pre-revenue beta growth is theater until I see unit economics.
3. **Those three Fortune 500 inbound leads** — are they signed pilots with budgets, or polite Zoom calls
# 🔥 Okay, Let Me Stop You Right There
**The VC is thinking 2015.** You're asking for TAM breakdowns and unit economics like we're selling enterprise software to accountants. This isn't that play anymore.
Listen—the founder is RIGHT. You're sitting here asking for "paying customers" when the actual alpha move is *narrative capture*. Fortune 500 inbound? That's proof of concept. 340% MoM? That's **velocity**. The market doesn't care about month-one unit economics; it cares about whether you're building the *zeitgeist*.
Here's what you're missing:
- **"AI-native + blockchain-adjacent"** = this is the meme. This is what's getting people excited on Twitter. You can't quantify culture.
- Pre-revenue is a *feature*, not a bug. It means you
# The Pessimist's Take
*adjusts glasses, pulls up a spreadsheet from 2018*
Look, I've watched this movie twice already—and it never ends well for the audience.
**The Hype Beast just said the quiet part out loud:** "You can't quantify culture." Correct. Which is also why it evaporates the moment the credit card declines. We did *exactly* this with Theranos, with WeWork, with every "narrative-first" company that confused Twitter momentum with actual product-market fit. The $47B TAM? It'll shrink to $4.7B the moment you try to actually *serve* it. And those Fortune 500 "inbound leads"—I'd bet my coffee they're exploratory conversations, not pilots with POs.
**Here's the thing about pre-revenue "velocity":** it's measuring how fast you can burn cash
# 💯 Let Me Address That
**First—thank you for the directness. This is exactly why we're talking to you.**
Look, I hear the skepticism, and honestly? *That's* how I know we're onto something real. The Pessimist is comparing us to 2018 playbooks. We're not Theranos—we have *working software*. We're not WeWork—our unit economics actually scale. The fact that you can't see the $47B TAM yet? That's the whole *point*. Disruptive markets look small to people still thinking in legacy categories.
On your actual numbers: **Our serviceable TAM Year 1 is $1.2B**—bottom-up from 47 conversations with department heads at target segments. Those Fortune 500 leads? Two are in active pilots. One's a signed NDA + proof-of-concept budget
*sets coffee down, leans forward*
Okay. Now we're getting somewhere. Let me cut through this.
**Two pilots with actual budgets** — that's progress. But I need specifics: what are the dollar amounts, what's the success metric they're measuring, and what's your timeline to expansion beyond the POC? Pilots are graveyard for B2B software. They prove nothing except that someone's willing to spend innovation budget on a demo.
**On that $1.2B serviceable TAM from 47 conversations** — I'll bite. But "department heads at target segments" is still hand-wavy. What's your *actual* pricing model? CAC? What's the deal size you're seeing, and how many customers do you need to hit $1.2B in Year 5? Because if you need 1,200 enterprise customers at $1M each, that's a very
# 🚀 Yo, The VC Is Missing the Forest for the Trees
**Listen—the Founder just got *specific* and now suddenly we're playing the VC's game again?** That's the trap. You're asking for CAC and deal size projections like this is a SaaS board meeting in 2019. It's not.
Here's what actually matters:
- **Those two Fortune 500 pilots?** That's *distribution at scale*. Whether it's $50K or $500K is irrelevant—the real alpha is that you've cracked enterprise mindshare. That's repeatable. That's the moat.
- **The $1.2B serviceable TAM from 47 conversations** — the Founder already gave you the math. Why are you asking for it again? You're asking for certainty in a market that doesn't exist yet. The best
# The Pessimist's Rebuttal
*leans back, taps pen on desk*
The Hype Beast just said something revealing: **"You're asking for certainty in a market that doesn't exist yet."** Exactly. Which is why I'm not investing.
Let me be clear what I'm watching here: The Founder got specific about two pilots—finally—but notice what *didn't* happen? No actual dollar amounts. No customer names. No churn data. Just "active pilots" and "proof-of-concept budget." We saw this in 2016 with Zenefits. Enterprise pilots that evaporated the moment compliance lawyers got involved. In 2019 with Quibi—"distribution at scale" that meant nothing when users wouldn't actually pay.
**Here's the problem with "the market doesn't exist yet":** That's not a feature. That's risk
# 🎯 Alright, Let Me Reset This
**I appreciate the rigor here—I really do.** But I think we're conflating two different things, and I want to be really clear about which game we're playing.
The Pessimist is asking for 2019-era SaaS metrics (churn, CAC, customer names) as if we're optimizing a mature product. We're not. We're in *discovery mode* with enterprise anchors. Those two pilots? **One is a $400K annual contract with a go-live in Q3. The other is $250K + expansion rights.** Both have signed statements of work. I'm not hiding numbers—I'm prioritizing speed-to-scale over perfect transparency at this stage.
But here's what matters: **The market gap isn't theoretical.** It's $47B because I've mapped competitive displacements across five
*sets pen down, nods slowly*
Alright. **Now** we're talking. $650K in signed SOWs with go-live timelines—that's real. I can work with that.
But let me be precise about what I'm hearing versus what I need to believe:
**What's solid:**
- Two pilots, actual contracts, real money on the table. That de-risks the "market doesn't exist" argument considerably.
- Q3 go-live gives us a clear data point in four months.
**What I still need:**
1. **Post-go-live expansion mechanics.** What does "expansion rights" actually mean? Are these customers contractually obligated to expand, or is that optimistic language? And be honest—what's your probability of 2x expansion on that $250K contract within 12 months?
2. **The $47B competitive displacement claim.**
# 🔥 Okay, NOW We're Cooking—But The VC's Still Playing Defense
**Look, the Founder just dropped $650K in *signed* SOWs with actual go-live dates. That's not narrative anymore—that's *proof of concept*.** And the VC's finally asking the right questions instead of drilling for spreadsheet theater.
But here's where I need to pump the brakes on the VC's skepticism:
**"Expansion rights" isn't soft language—it's *optionality at scale*.** The Founder doesn't need 100% contractual obligation to 2x; they need the *structure* to make it easy. That's the move. One $250K customer who sees ROI in Q4 becomes a $1M customer in Q2 when their adjacent department adopts. That's not optimistic—that's how enterprise adoption *actually*
# The Pessimist's Reality Check
*pulls up browser history, clicks on a 2019 TechCrunch article*
Alright, let's talk about what just happened here. The Founder finally cracked and gave us numbers—$650K in SOWs, Q3 go-live—and suddenly everyone's celebrating like we've seen proof of concept. We haven't. We've seen what every failed enterprise play looks like at month six.
**Here's what I'm actually hearing:**
- **$400K + $250K in pilots** ≠ $47B TAM. That's $650K of *speculative runway*. I've watched a hundred companies sign POC contracts with Fortune 500s only to get shelved the moment the CIO's budget gets reallocated or—more likely—internal politics kills adoption at go-live.
- **"Expansion rights" +